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Written by Anthony Darvall U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the positive momentum continued overnight with stocks extending Wednesday’s gains and dips being bought on risk appetite. Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 472k vs. 475k forecast and US Pending Home Sales increased 5.2% in July. In US stocks, DJIA +50points closing at 10320, S&P +9 points closing at 1090 and NASDAQ +23 points closing at 2200. Looking ahead, AugustUS Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast at -100k vs. -131k. August Unemployment Rate is forecast at 9.6% vs. 9.5% previously. The Euro (EUR) the ECB held at 1.0% as widely expected and President Trichet was positive in the press conference afterwards. Q2 GDP was also confirmed at 1.0% allowing the EUR/USD to consolidate above 1.2800. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2775 and a high of 1.2880 before closing at 1.2820. Looking ahead, July Retail Sales are forecast 0.2% vs. 0.0%. The Japanese Yen (JPY) was extremely quiet inside a 50 pip range with the pair finding support at Y84.00. The AUD/JPY is supporting grinding higher towards Y77 ahead of the Yen critical US jobs reports tonight. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 83.98 and a high of 84.58 before closing the day around 84.40 in the New York session. The Sterling (GBP) was under slight pressure in Europe unable to take advantage of the improvement in risk appetite. August Nationwide House Price Index fell -0.9% m/m and has increased economists worried about a double dip recession. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5348 and a high of 1.5454 before closing the day at 1.5420 in the New York session. Looking ahead, August PMI services are forecast at 52.9 vs. 53.1 previously. The Australian Dollar (AUD) the commodity based currency took advantage of moves higher in Oil and stocks to break above 0.9100. July Trade Balance fell unexpectedly to 1.8bn vs. 3.4bn forecast. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9053 and a high of 0.9123 before closing the US session at 0.9100. Oil & Gold (XAU) range traded around the $1250 figure. Overall trading with a low of USD$1244 and high of USD $1253 before ending the New York session at USD$1250 an ounce. Crude Oil jumped on news of an Oil Rig explosion. WTI Oil Closed +$1.11 at $75.00 a barrel. TECHNICAL COMMENTARY Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2 EUR/USD 1.2434 1.2588 1.2830 1.2933 1.3000 USD/JPY 81.85 83.60 84.35 86.38 88.12 GBP/USD 1.5125 1.5324 1.5425 1.5492 1.5713 AUD/USD 0.8634 0.8771 0.9110 0.9117 0.9222 XAU/USD 1210.00 1232 1250 1265 1300.00 OIL/USD 70.00 72.50 74.80 75.00 76.00 Euro – 1.2830 Initial support at 1.2588 (Aug 24 low) followed by 1.2434 (61.8% retrace of 1.1877-1.3334). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2933 (Aug 12 low) followed by 1.3000 (Big figure Resistance) Yen – 84.35 Initial support is located at 83.60 (August 24 low) followed by 81.85 (May 1995 low). Initial resistance is now at 86.38 (August 13 high) followed by 87.15 (38.2% retrace of 92.89-83.60). Pound – 1.5425 Initial support at 1.5324 (38.2% retrace of 1.4231-1.5999) followed by 1.5125 (July 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5475 (Aug 31 high) followed by 1.5713 (Aug 12 high). Australian Dollar – 0.9110 Initial support at 0.8771 (Aug 25 low) followed by the 0.8634 (July 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9117 (Sept 2 high) followed by 0.9222 (Aug 6 high). Gold – 1250 Initial support at 1232 (Aug 31 low) followed by 1210 (Aug 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 1265 (June 21 high) followed by 1300 (round number). Oil – 74.80 Initial support at 72.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 71.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 75.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 76.00 (Intraday Resistance).
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Written by Anthony Darvall
U.S. Dollar buying and selling (USD) the good momentum ongoing great apart with stocks and shares extending Wednesday’s gains and dips getting purchased on danger appetite. Weekly Jobless promises fell to 472k vs. 475k forecast and US Pending residence product sales enhanced 5.2% in July. In US stocks, DJIA +50points closing at 10320, S&P +9 factors closing at 1090 and NASDAQ +23 factors closing at 2200. looking ahead, AugustUS Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast at -100k vs. -131k. August joblessness price is forecast at 9.6% vs. 9.5% previously.
The Euro (EUR) the ECB held at 1.0% as extensively anticipated and President Trichet was good using the press conference afterwards. Q2 GDP was also confirmed at 1.0% permitting the EUR/USD to consolidate above 1.2800. EUR/USD traded using a reduced of 1.2775 jointly with a tremendous of 1.2880 past to closing at 1.2820. looking ahead, July list product sales are forecast 0.2% vs. 0.0%.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was amazingly quiet within a fifty pip assortment using the pair acquiring help at Y84.00. The AUD/JPY is supporting grinding increased in the direction of Y77 forward concerning the Yen crucial US careers reviews tonight. standard the USDJPY traded using a reduced of 83.98 jointly with a tremendous of 84.58 past to closing the morning near to 84.40 using the brand ny session.
The Sterling (GBP) was below slight stress in Europe unable to hold advantage concerning the development in danger appetite. August Nationwide home providing price Index fell -0.9% m/m and has enhanced economists worried about a double dip recession. standard the GBP/USD traded using a reduced of 1.5348 jointly with a tremendous of 1.5454 past to closing the morning at 1.5420 using the brand ny session. looking ahead, August PMI options are forecast at 52.9 vs. 53.1 previously.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) the commodity dependent currency took benefit of moves increased in essential oil and stocks and shares to break above 0.9100. July industry harmony fell unexpectedly to 1.8bn vs. 3.4bn forecast. standard the AUD/USD traded using a reduced of 0.9053 jointly with a tremendous of 0.9123 past to closing the US session at 0.9100.
Oil & Gold (XAU) assortment traded near to the $1250 figure. standard buying and selling using a reduced of USD$1244 and huge of USD $1253 past to ending the brand ny session at USD$1250 an ounce. Crude essential oil jumped on information of an essential oil Rig explosion. WTI essential oil Closed +$1.11 at $75.00 a barrel.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
Currency
Sup 2
Sup 1
Spot
Res 1
Res 2
EUR/USD
1.2434
1.2588
1.2830
1.2933
1.3000
USD/JPY
81.85
83.60
84.35
86.38
88.12
GBP/USD
1.5125
1.5324
1.5425
1.5492
1.5713
AUD/USD
0.8634
0.8771
0.9110
0.9117
0.9222
XAU/USD
1210.00
1232
1250
1265
1300.00
OIL/USD
70.00
72.50
74.80
75.00
76.00
Euro – 1.2830
Initial help at 1.2588 (Aug 24 low) observed by 1.2434 (61.8% retrace of 1.1877-1.3334). original resistance is now situated at 1.2933 (Aug twelve low) observed by 1.3000 (Big figure Resistance)
Yen – 84.35
Initial help is situated at 83.60 (August 24 low) observed by 81.85 (May 1995 low). original resistance is now at 86.38 (August 13 high) observed by 87.15 (38.2% retrace of 92.89-83.60).
Pound – 1.5425
Initial help at 1.5324 (38.2% retrace of 1.4231-1.5999) observed by 1.5125 (July 21 low). original resistance is now at 1.5475 (Aug 31 high) observed by 1.5713 (Aug twelve high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9110
Initial help at 0.8771 (Aug 25 low) observed over the 0.8634 (July 19 low). original resistance is now at 0.9117 (Sept a few of high) observed by 0.9222 (Aug 6 high).
Gold – 1250
Initial help at 1232 (Aug 31 low) observed by 1210 (Aug 24 low). original resistance is now at 1265 (June 21 high) observed by 1300 (round number).
Oil – 74.80
Initial help at 72.50 (Intraday Support) observed by 71.00 (Intraday Support). original resistance is now at 75.00 (Intraday Resistance) observed by 76.00 (Intraday Resistance).